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November 21, 2008
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06/12/08 - Flooding Threat Continues in Midwest

Courtesy of USA Today:

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Flooding Threat Continues in the Midwest

Flooding threat continues in the Midwest -- The same slow-moving storm system that gave rise to killer tornadoes in Kansas and Iowa on Wednesday will bring more showers and thunderstorms to the flood-stricken Midwest today and Friday. Heaviest rain today and tonight (at least 1.50 inches) is expected from southeastern Kansas through central and northern Missouri, southeastern Iowa, northwestern Illinois into southern Wisconsin. The heaviest rain (an inch or more) on Friday is expected from central Illinois through northern Indiana, southern Michigan and northwestern Ohio. Ongoing flooding continues in 10 states (S.D., Minn., Wis., Neb., Iowa, Ill., Ind., Kan., Mo., and Okla.) with 35 gauges currently reporting major flooding. As tributaries feed into the upper and middle Mississippi, moderate to major flooding is expected for parts of the Mississippi River over the coming days. According to the National Weather Service forecast office in St. Louis, the Missouri River at St. Louis is expected to begin falling as the higher flows from the upper Mississippi River hit the confluence. This may only result in moderate flooding impact for the St. Louis area. However, farther to the north on the Mississippi River, major flooding appears to be fairly certain. Model guidance suggests that the crests will be below 1993 flood levels, but near those from flooding in 1973. Since hydrological model guidance only takes into account forecast precipitation for the next 24 hours, additional rainfall beyond that time frame could impact the forecast crest levels.

Severe storm threat -- In addition to the heavy rainfall and flooding threat, severe thunderstorms will be possible for parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for eastern North Dakota, northeastern South Dakota, western Minnesota, northern Oklahoma, the eastern half of Kansas, much of Missouri, eastern Iowa, central and northern Illinois, and much of Wisconsin and Michigan. Threats include isolated tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds, with storms most likely in the mid to late afternoon. Severe threat will diminish after sundown, though heavy rain potential will continue into the overnight hours.

Fire weather -- Red flag fire warnings are in place for much of California's Sacramento Valley, northeastern New Mexico and southern Colorado.